Bayesian tools for product and growth decisions.
Decide whether a variant won, what an experiment is worth running, and whether churn is outrunning acquisition — with uncertainty you can show a stakeholder.
Questions these tools answer
- Did variant B really beat A, and by how much?
- Is this experiment worth its cost before we run it?
- Where does steady acquisition against steady churn level off?
- What is a customer worth against what winning them cost?
Instruments
- A/B Testing Calculator
- Business Experiment Calculator
- Customer Churn Simulator
- Customer Value Calculator
- Ceiling Calculator
- Bayesian Assurance Planner
- Bayesian Innovation Options Simulator
- Usage Count Estimator
- Call Coach
- Expert Prior Bayesian Builder
- Rating Estimator
- Time-to-Event Explorer
- Weighted Decision Matrix
- DAG Sketchpad
- Posting Time Estimator
- Conjunction Calculator
Articles
- A/B testing with prior information
- Getting a prior by sequential tests
- What is an experiment worth?
- Getting a prior by pooling expert opinions