Bayesian tools for everyday reasoning.
Why a positive test is not a diagnosis, why a plan of likely steps is unlikely, and where to look first for something you lost.
Questions these tools answer
- The test says positive. What are the odds I have it?
- Every step is likely. How likely is the whole plan?
- Where should I search first, and what does an empty search tell me?
- Which option is best on what I care about?
Instruments
- Diagnostic-Test Calculator
- Conjunction Calculator
- Lost Object Search Grid
- Weighted Decision Matrix
- DAG Sketchpad
- Travel Surface
- Bayesian Risk Calculator