Bayesian tools for open-source investigation.
Size a population from the few numbers you can see, place something from imperfect witnesses, and read an account's habits from its timestamps — each with its uncertainty attached.
Questions these tools answer
- From the serial numbers seen, how many were made?
- Where is it, given witnesses who disagree?
- What do an account's posting times say about where it is?
- Who sits at the centre of this network, and how sure are we?
Instruments
- Serial-Number Estimator
- Joint Location Prior
- Posting Time Estimator
- Competing Hypotheses
- Centrality Under Uncertainty
- Capture–Recapture Estimator
- Inter-Rater Reliability Audit
- Collection Planner
- Canary Trap
- Key Player Removal
- Travel Surface
- Lost Object Search Grid
- Conjunction Calculator